Tag Archives: NFL

Learn How to Spot Angles and Profit

I hope you find these angles helpful.

Learn to spot them and profit. 

game-of-knowns

You may need to do a little homework, but it will be worth it!

For The NFL:
#1:
Double Digit Favorites:
When a Double Digit favorite covers in the first half, take the under
in the 2nd half.
This has been hitting a little more than 65% .For College:
#2:
Bowl or Bubble Busters:
One of my favorites, because it can be used often.
Teams that have a long winning streak halted, or are taken out
of an anticipated bowl consideration, generally don’t cover their next games.
This works especially well for previously undefeated bowl bound teams.
 An example from a few years ago, that converted almost weekly,
is enclosed at the bottom of this newsletter* 
#3:
Ranked Underdogs Playing At Home:
You may only find this angle every few weeks.
In the long run it’s a good spot to exploit, and often worth a little
larger wager.

For College or The NFL:
#4:
Turnovers:
There is no magic formula here.
Charitable teams that throw interceptions and fumble, lose football games.
Sometimes this is a difficult stat to utilize because although turnovers
may be the result of ineffective play, many occur because players just
happen to be in the right place at the right time.
Interceptions are often the result of tipped balls.
Fumble recoveries are often the result of lucky bounces.

But…..Some teams are definitely more effective at creating
turnovers (or losing turnovers), luck or not.
A team with a +3 turnover margin will lose that game over 90 % of the time!
Teams that average a +2 turnover margin do not fare much better.

#5.
Social Networks
(This can work for The NFL, but it’s especially useful for college games.)
You may be able to access team, player or coaches private,
or not so private accounts.

The easiest may be twitter. You can’t follow everyone, but you may
want to follow some of the principles just prior to their games.
It’s important that you act as a processor.
Lots of information is either inaccurate or wishful thinking.

Earlier this season it was reported that a talented
college quarterback would probably not be playing.
He messaged me on Twitter that he was.
I went heavier on the game and made a very nice profit.


Hope some of these ideas help this weekend.

safestwagering.net
Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”    
 

              questions/contact: john@safestwagering.net
* Bowl or Bubble Buster Examples;
Following is a strong list of examples from a few years ago.
Boise State was 8-0. They lost to TCU,
and then didn’t cover against San Diego State.
Georgia Tech was 6-0. They lost to Virginia,
and then didn’t cover against Miami.
Clemson was 8-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against Wake Forest.
Wisconsin was 6-0.They lost to Michigan State,
and then didn’t cover against Ohio State.
N. Carolina was 3-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against E. Carolina.
California was 3-0. They lost to Washington,
and then didn’t cover against Oregon.
Texas was 4-0.They lost to Iowa State,
and then didn’t cover against Oklahoma.
Alabama was 8-0. They lost to LSU,
and then didn’t cover against Mississippi State.
Only 3 teams that season did not implode after losing their first big game following a winning streak. They were: Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

 

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

Scary Wagering Numbers

1) On Any Given Day:
4% of those who wager on horses show a profit.
Ask a typical gambler leaving any gaming establishment if they made money.
They didn’t win.
They didn’t lose.
They broke even.
They lied.

 2)  In Any Given Season:
3% of those betting on football get money back from their sports book.

This says it all.
From The late Bob Martin, manager of Las Vegas’s first sportsbook:
“The number of bettors who win betting pro football is so small that it is
virtually the same as if no one won.”

3)  In Any Given Lifetime:
0% of those wagering in a casino show a profit.

It doesn’t get more blunt than this…..
Steve Wynn (owner of multiple billion dollar casinos) was interviewed
by Charlie Rose on 60 minutes and asked:
“Have you ever known, in your entire life, a gambler who wins here big and
walks away?”
“Never”, Wynn replied.

Rose then followed with:
“Do you know anybody over a stretch of time, who is ahead?”
Wynn replied with another unhesitating answer:
“Nope”

Preseason Football Wagering Tips

Preseason football is the only major US sport that takes meaningful wagering action.
I used to think these games were unplayable, until I met a handicapper who had some
unique insights and did very well.

These “practice” games usually have no correlation with the “real” ones.
Final outcomes ATS, are often based more on coaches intent than team ability.

Pay attention to the following.

a) Coaches Press conferences:
You don’t get much information from these commercially driven TV shows,
but coaches often indicate how long starters will play, especially the quarterback.
Some have a history of protecting personnel, and would rather play remote backups after the first quarter. Other coaches need to win.

b) The third preseason game of the year will mimic a team’s ability the most.
Generally the starters play the longest in these games. These contests may also give
valuable insight into how a team will perform during the beginning of the regular season.
There are exceptions. Capitalize on these!

Example of a great Preseason Money Making Opportunity:

In 2012 The Philadelphia Eagles played their 3rd preseason game against The Cleveland Browns. Their first real game of the season was also against The Browns. The Eagles had a proven core of veterans, while The Browns were more interested in testing their new rookie quarterback and younger personnel. It seemed pretty obvious that Philadelphia’s coach would not want to risk game-plan exposure in Game 3, and would opt to make Game 2 (against The Patriots) the real preseason test for his starters. We jumped on the Game 2 line as soon as it was available, before it moved almost 5 points! The Eagles ended up covering by over 10 points.

Early Season Football Angles

For the next few weeks I’ll be forwarding:
a) Angles that will be useful at the beginning of football season.
b) Excerpts from my newest handicapping book.

1.  Returning College Starters:
This can be a huge angle early in the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.
Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior
starters who are replacing underclassmen.

A great example:
In 2014, the team with  the most returning starters was The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners.
Their first game of the season was against The Houston Cougars.
The early preseason line in late July was Houston -13.
Smart money immediately took The Roadrunners who ended up going off at +8.5 at gametime. They won 27 to 7 covering the number by 28.5 points!

USTA ended the season 4-8, losing to some poor teams as younger players
on other squads got better.

2.  Veteran College Offensive Lines:
Teams returning more offensive line starters have a greater opportunity to
be competitive early in the season. An extra advantage goes to those teams
that also return the same starting quarterback.
This angle diminishes as the season progresses.
Other teams may get more competitive later on, while the ones that were
better earlier  improve less.

NFL Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots Versus Seattle Seahawks.

New England Patriots Versus Seattle Seahawks.

 

 

The best way the Patriots can take the tarnish of football impropriety off of their

3 Lombardi trophies is by just winning today.

Most of the country seems to be rooting for Seattle, while most of the big early

money was bet on New England.

 

There’s no need for another repetitive analysis of match-ups or player’s attitudes.

We’ve heard it all for the last 14 days.

 

There were no major news stories since the conference championships so we got to talk

about air pressure. Anything else remotely sexy and these discussions may have

only lasted a few days.

We didn’t hear about Ted Kennedy driving under the influence at Chappaquiddick

for 72 hours because Neil Armstrong was taking his “small” step on the moon.

The country quickly forgot about House Rep Gary Condit’s murder accusation

after September 10th 2001.

 

Luckily today will be just about football.

 

Here’s what I see.

We can discount The Patriots dominating win over The Colts.

Indianapolis isn’t quite ready.

We can’t discount The Seahawks poor play for 55 minutes against The Packers.

Green Bay imploded on Offense, Defense, Coaching and Special teams.

 

Both teams are capable of stopping the run. On paper defense should dominate.

The total has already dropped two points.

I would expect to see a little more of Russel Wilson scrambling to keep the Patriots honest.

I would expect to see some quick empty set passes from Tom Brady to help keep the Seahawks defensive line

out of his backfield.

 

You never know, but I think Tom Brady will be fine with a few more PSI today.

 

I like New England  +1  (this line is available at some books at 11:45 EST)