Tag Archives: NCAA

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

Scary Wagering Numbers

1) On Any Given Day:
4% of those who wager on horses show a profit.
Ask a typical gambler leaving any gaming establishment if they made money.
They didn’t win.
They didn’t lose.
They broke even.
They lied.

 2)  In Any Given Season:
3% of those betting on football get money back from their sports book.

This says it all.
From The late Bob Martin, manager of Las Vegas’s first sportsbook:
“The number of bettors who win betting pro football is so small that it is
virtually the same as if no one won.”

3)  In Any Given Lifetime:
0% of those wagering in a casino show a profit.

It doesn’t get more blunt than this…..
Steve Wynn (owner of multiple billion dollar casinos) was interviewed
by Charlie Rose on 60 minutes and asked:
“Have you ever known, in your entire life, a gambler who wins here big and
walks away?”
“Never”, Wynn replied.

Rose then followed with:
“Do you know anybody over a stretch of time, who is ahead?”
Wynn replied with another unhesitating answer:
“Nope”

Wagering Angles for the first 2 Weeks of The College Season

Note:  This information is available at #Rivals.com   -or- #ESPN.com

1)   Teams with  Top Ranked Recruits:
Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.
This is often already built into the line.

I.   In addition, those “top recruits” may:
1)  Not be on the field.
2)  Need to get acclimated to college football.
3)  May not be as capable at this level.

II.  Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.
Many players will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.

III.  Often teams with the top recruiting classes one year are attractive bets early the following year.

2)    The Second Week of The Season:
The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.
It doesn’t.
After the first game of the season the betting populous only have one game to draw on.
Teams that win blow-outs are overbet.
Teams that are blown-out are underbet.

There’s one thing you just can’t change….. Luck

Luck:
Don’t be too hard on yourself.
Luck is a factor beyond your control.
It often seems like the other team gets more breaks, but in the end these even out.
Our capital can be taken hostage by bad calls, poor judgment, unique bounces, and injuries.

Following is one of the more exasperating calls that took money out of my pocket.
It occurred late in the 4th quarter of the “Pinstripe Bowl” between The Kansas State Wildcats and
The Syracuse Orange.
I had The Wildcats +1.

Kansas State had the momentum, but Syracuse was leading 36-28 with little time left on the clock.
Something needed to happen quickly.
It did.
Wildcat receiver Adrian Hilburn caught a 30-yard touchdown pass.
A two-point conversion would tie the game.

After the catch, Hilburn gave an innocuous military style salute, and was unbelievably
flagged 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Rule 9-2-1d states that a penalty is justified for “any delayed, excessive, prolonged or choreographed act
by which a player attempts to focus attention on himself [or themselves].”

The ball was then placed on the 18,    instead of the 3-yard line.
Kansas State couldn’t convert, and lost.

Ironically, this game followed a contest between Army and SMU.
Do you think Army would have been penalized for a salute after a touchdown?

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

2015 College Football Playoff National Championship: Oregon Ducks Vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

2015 College Football Playoff National Championship: Oregon Ducks Vs. Ohio State Buckeyes 

safest-wagering-breaking-bad-streaks
 
          We know the components and have seen them perform.
          We have all heard the commonality of analysis and questions.
       1)  Can Ohio State’s 3rd string quarterback execute against Oregon’s defense?
       2)  Can Marcus Mariotta be as effective and elusive against one of
            the best defenses in the country ?
       3)  How does Oregon react to additional injuries and suspensions?
       4)  Does continuity at every position except quarterback help Ohio State
             more than Oregon.
       5) Which coach does a better job with his animate chess pieces?
              Explanations and Answers:
        1)     Ohio State crushed Wisconsin. I originally discounted the win a little
              because it seems The Badger players knew (before the public)
              that their coach was leaving.
              The best way The Buckeyes could validate that dominating
              win was by beating #1 rated Alabama.
              They did.
        2)  This may surprise some, but the school with the second
              best rated recent recruiting record is not an SEC team.
              It’s Ohio State, who attracted 71 four-five star recruits,
              compared to Oregon’s 38.
              This has given The Buckeyes great depth.
              The Ducks have done a great job dealing with multiple injuries.
              But they are more banged up than Ohio State.
       3)   Oregon has lost another key receiver Darren Carrington.
              You can also throw in Ayele Forde (RB).
       4)   Finally and maybe most importantly, coaching:
               Mark Helfrich has done a great job replacing Chip Kelly.
               He was originally a little known Offensive Coordinator and quarterbacks coach
               for some very bad Colorado teams.
               Entering tonight’s game he’s an impressive 24-3 as a head coach.
              Urban Meyer has a bowl record of 8-2.
              He almost always covers the point spread.
              His staff is as deep and talented as any in college football.
              He outcoached Nick Saban in The Sugar Bowl.
After last weekend, we’ve seen that anything can happen:
          1)  If the usually well coached Patriots run the ball more than a few times in the 2nd half,
               they probably cover.
2)  If Dez Bryant wasn’t such a competitor, The Cowboys score at the end of yesterday’s game

                 and The Over covers.

3)   And what happened in Denver surprised some of the sharpest.

               Sportsbook managers expected the line to remain stagnant and it went up 3 points.
               Not because smart money expected Manning to suddenly revert back to prior year form,
               but because his offense was healthy, and because their capable defense would contain The Colts.
They didn’t
                                  I give the edge to The Ohio State Buckeyes +6