Tag Archives: Game of Knowns

Learn How to Spot Angles and Profit

I hope you find these angles helpful.

Learn to spot them and profit. 

game-of-knowns

You may need to do a little homework, but it will be worth it!

For The NFL:
#1:
Double Digit Favorites:
When a Double Digit favorite covers in the first half, take the under
in the 2nd half.
This has been hitting a little more than 65% .For College:
#2:
Bowl or Bubble Busters:
One of my favorites, because it can be used often.
Teams that have a long winning streak halted, or are taken out
of an anticipated bowl consideration, generally don’t cover their next games.
This works especially well for previously undefeated bowl bound teams.
 An example from a few years ago, that converted almost weekly,
is enclosed at the bottom of this newsletter* 
#3:
Ranked Underdogs Playing At Home:
You may only find this angle every few weeks.
In the long run it’s a good spot to exploit, and often worth a little
larger wager.

For College or The NFL:
#4:
Turnovers:
There is no magic formula here.
Charitable teams that throw interceptions and fumble, lose football games.
Sometimes this is a difficult stat to utilize because although turnovers
may be the result of ineffective play, many occur because players just
happen to be in the right place at the right time.
Interceptions are often the result of tipped balls.
Fumble recoveries are often the result of lucky bounces.

But…..Some teams are definitely more effective at creating
turnovers (or losing turnovers), luck or not.
A team with a +3 turnover margin will lose that game over 90 % of the time!
Teams that average a +2 turnover margin do not fare much better.

#5.
Social Networks
(This can work for The NFL, but it’s especially useful for college games.)
You may be able to access team, player or coaches private,
or not so private accounts.

The easiest may be twitter. You can’t follow everyone, but you may
want to follow some of the principles just prior to their games.
It’s important that you act as a processor.
Lots of information is either inaccurate or wishful thinking.

Earlier this season it was reported that a talented
college quarterback would probably not be playing.
He messaged me on Twitter that he was.
I went heavier on the game and made a very nice profit.


Hope some of these ideas help this weekend.

safestwagering.net
Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”    
 

              questions/contact: john@safestwagering.net
* Bowl or Bubble Buster Examples;
Following is a strong list of examples from a few years ago.
Boise State was 8-0. They lost to TCU,
and then didn’t cover against San Diego State.
Georgia Tech was 6-0. They lost to Virginia,
and then didn’t cover against Miami.
Clemson was 8-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against Wake Forest.
Wisconsin was 6-0.They lost to Michigan State,
and then didn’t cover against Ohio State.
N. Carolina was 3-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against E. Carolina.
California was 3-0. They lost to Washington,
and then didn’t cover against Oregon.
Texas was 4-0.They lost to Iowa State,
and then didn’t cover against Oklahoma.
Alabama was 8-0. They lost to LSU,
and then didn’t cover against Mississippi State.
Only 3 teams that season did not implode after losing their first big game following a winning streak. They were: Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

 

Angles for Wagering on The NFL: Part 1

Hopefully some will be useful this week.
Parts II thru VII will be released during the next 10 days.

1. Early Lines:
These can be your best wagering values.
I had two for today that have already moved substantially.
Those who make the lines usually create numbers close to the
public consensus and final game result, but they do make mistakes.
Jump on these.

Lines come out 8-9 days prior to games. At the time of this writing
The Las Vegas Hilton (or now The LVH) may be your best source
for this advanced information. Try to make your own lines before interpreting those that are posted. It gets easier with practice.

On average, I find approximately 1-3 mistakes per week.
The sharp money attacks these numbers early.

A Fictitious Example:
The Cleveland Browns are playing the Kansas City Chiefs.
Nine days prior to kickoff, the line opens at Browns -2.5.
Early money quickly bets The Chiefs, taking the line
to Browns + 2.5.
The public then takes The Browns, changing the number
to a pick-em.

This tells us two things:
1) The early smart researcher gets much more value
for their money.
2) This could be a great play for those who like to middle.
If they wager on both sides of the game, and the number
falls between -2 and + 2, they win each bet, while only risking one.

2. Missing The Early Lines:
OK, so you got tied up doing something else and missed
checking the early lines.
Or, maybe you don’t feel confident enough yet deciphering
this preliminary data.
Check where the line opened earliest, and see how it’s moved.
There is a definite advantage to analyzing a side that took
the earliest action. You just won’t get the same value as the
ambitious sharp money.
Note: If the early line has moved more than 3 points, you may
have missed your opportunity.

3. The 20 Point Rebound:
What happened last week probably won’t be replicated the next.
In addition, two competing teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.

What to look for.
A match-up of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS
or more, against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage.
The larger the spread or point disparity the greater the betting opportunity.

Note that we are not attempting to pick a straight up underdog winner,
but just cover ATS.

4. The Favorite Rebound:
A favorite that was blown out in their prior game and is now
an underdog, is often a good bet. This is just thinking differently
than the general public who likes favorites, and in most cases only
uses their most recent recollections to formulate new ones.

A word of caution.
Unless a team is playoff bound, this angle is not as strong at the
end of the season, when some teams are getting ready
for the golf course.

Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”