Tag Archives: Early Season

Early Season Angles That Convert

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College: 

  1.   Returning Starters:

This can be huge the first week of the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.

Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior

starters who are replacing underclassmen.

In addition:

  1.    a)  Teams returning both kickers and their starting quarterback dramatically

increase the conversion rate.

  1.    b)  Some of these teams that perennially have poorer records revert

back to their prior levels of futility, and are often good to go against

after the 2nd game of the season.

  1.  Teams with  Top Ranked Recruits:   

Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.

This is often already built into the line.

  1. In addition, those “top recruits” may:
    a)  Not be on the field.
    b)  Need to get acclimated to college football.
    c)  May not be as capable at this level.
  1.  Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.

Many players/teams will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.

NFL: 

In recent years,  teams that go 0-4 in preseason, not only don’t cover,

but don’t win their first real game almost 70% of the time.

College or NFL:

  1. The Second Week of The Season:

The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.

It doesn’t.

After the first game of the season the betting populous only

have one game to draw on.

Teams that win blowouts are overbet.

Teams that are blownout are underbet.

Note:

Some of my selections may not always be top 20 match-ups.

The goal is simply to win, even if some games are less significant.

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Early Season Football Angles

For the next few weeks I’ll be forwarding:
a) Angles that will be useful at the beginning of football season.
b) Excerpts from my newest handicapping book.

1.  Returning College Starters:
This can be a huge angle early in the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.
Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior
starters who are replacing underclassmen.

A great example:
In 2014, the team with  the most returning starters was The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners.
Their first game of the season was against The Houston Cougars.
The early preseason line in late July was Houston -13.
Smart money immediately took The Roadrunners who ended up going off at +8.5 at gametime. They won 27 to 7 covering the number by 28.5 points!

USTA ended the season 4-8, losing to some poor teams as younger players
on other squads got better.

2.  Veteran College Offensive Lines:
Teams returning more offensive line starters have a greater opportunity to
be competitive early in the season. An extra advantage goes to those teams
that also return the same starting quarterback.
This angle diminishes as the season progresses.
Other teams may get more competitive later on, while the ones that were
better earlier  improve less.