For the next few weeks I’ll be forwarding:
a) Angles that will be useful at the beginning of football season.
b) Excerpts from my newest handicapping book.
1. Returning College Starters:
This can be a huge angle early in the season.
Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.
Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior
starters who are replacing underclassmen.
A great example:
In 2014, the team with the most returning starters was The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners.
Their first game of the season was against The Houston Cougars.
The early preseason line in late July was Houston -13.
Smart money immediately took The Roadrunners who ended up going off at +8.5 at gametime. They won 27 to 7 covering the number by 28.5 points!
USTA ended the season 4-8, losing to some poor teams as younger players
on other squads got better.
2. Veteran College Offensive Lines:
Teams returning more offensive line starters have a greater opportunity to
be competitive early in the season. An extra advantage goes to those teams
that also return the same starting quarterback.
This angle diminishes as the season progresses.
Other teams may get more competitive later on, while the ones that were
better earlier improve less.