Category Archives: Wagering

Table of Contents from My Upcoming Book

Here’s the Table of Contents from my newest book,  #1 Amazon New Release!

Football Betting Made Easy

Football Betting Made Easy

FOOTBALL BETTING MADE EASY
Secrets of a Professional Handicapper

By John D. Rothschild

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Why don’t you ever see the headline ‘Psychic Wins Lottery’?

Chapter 1: How to Lose $45,000 in 50 Minutes

Chapter 2: How to Think Differently Than Everyone Else

Chapter 3: How Much Can I Really Make?

Chapter 4: The 9 Biggest Wagering Mistakes

Chapter 5: How to Lose $300,000 in 28 Days

Chapter 6: Wagering Basics and Useful Terminology

Chapter 7: Your First Quiz. (This one doesn’t count.)

Chapter 8: Money Management 101

Chapter 9: My Early Disasters on Television

Chapter 10: Your Second Quiz. (See if you’re ready to start making money.)

Chapter 11: Angles That Work Best for College Football

Chapter 12: Your First Real Test

Chapter 13: Interview with an Illegal Bookmaker

Chapter 14: Angles That Work Best for the NFL (many also work for college)

Chapter 15: Half-Time Show. (How Jonathan Swift Might View Football.)

Chapter 16: Angles That Work Equally Well for College or the NFL

Chapter 17: Your Second Real Test

Chapter 18: $200,000 in Debt

Chapter 19: Midterms

Chapter 20: NFL Playoff Angles

Chapter 21: Visionaries and Prognosticators Can Be Overhyped, Even Guys Like Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Edison!

Chapter 22: Prepping for Finals

Chapter 23: Wagering Strategies That Just Don’t Work

Chapter 24: Finals and Graduation with Honors. 10 Games to Prove You’ve Learned How to Make Substantial Profits

Appendix
Abbreviated Football Terms

Learn How to Spot Angles and Profit

I hope you find these angles helpful.

Learn to spot them and profit. 

game-of-knowns

You may need to do a little homework, but it will be worth it!

For The NFL:
#1:
Double Digit Favorites:
When a Double Digit favorite covers in the first half, take the under
in the 2nd half.
This has been hitting a little more than 65% .For College:
#2:
Bowl or Bubble Busters:
One of my favorites, because it can be used often.
Teams that have a long winning streak halted, or are taken out
of an anticipated bowl consideration, generally don’t cover their next games.
This works especially well for previously undefeated bowl bound teams.
 An example from a few years ago, that converted almost weekly,
is enclosed at the bottom of this newsletter* 
#3:
Ranked Underdogs Playing At Home:
You may only find this angle every few weeks.
In the long run it’s a good spot to exploit, and often worth a little
larger wager.

For College or The NFL:
#4:
Turnovers:
There is no magic formula here.
Charitable teams that throw interceptions and fumble, lose football games.
Sometimes this is a difficult stat to utilize because although turnovers
may be the result of ineffective play, many occur because players just
happen to be in the right place at the right time.
Interceptions are often the result of tipped balls.
Fumble recoveries are often the result of lucky bounces.

But…..Some teams are definitely more effective at creating
turnovers (or losing turnovers), luck or not.
A team with a +3 turnover margin will lose that game over 90 % of the time!
Teams that average a +2 turnover margin do not fare much better.

#5.
Social Networks
(This can work for The NFL, but it’s especially useful for college games.)
You may be able to access team, player or coaches private,
or not so private accounts.

The easiest may be twitter. You can’t follow everyone, but you may
want to follow some of the principles just prior to their games.
It’s important that you act as a processor.
Lots of information is either inaccurate or wishful thinking.

Earlier this season it was reported that a talented
college quarterback would probably not be playing.
He messaged me on Twitter that he was.
I went heavier on the game and made a very nice profit.


Hope some of these ideas help this weekend.

safestwagering.net
Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”    
 

              questions/contact: john@safestwagering.net
* Bowl or Bubble Buster Examples;
Following is a strong list of examples from a few years ago.
Boise State was 8-0. They lost to TCU,
and then didn’t cover against San Diego State.
Georgia Tech was 6-0. They lost to Virginia,
and then didn’t cover against Miami.
Clemson was 8-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against Wake Forest.
Wisconsin was 6-0.They lost to Michigan State,
and then didn’t cover against Ohio State.
N. Carolina was 3-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against E. Carolina.
California was 3-0. They lost to Washington,
and then didn’t cover against Oregon.
Texas was 4-0.They lost to Iowa State,
and then didn’t cover against Oklahoma.
Alabama was 8-0. They lost to LSU,
and then didn’t cover against Mississippi State.
Only 3 teams that season did not implode after losing their first big game following a winning streak. They were: Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

 

SafestWagering.com: Why I Charge

Rothschild's Guide to Football Handicapping

I’m often asked why I charge for selections.

In 2003, two of my original investors and mentors asked if I would be interested in offering my wagering opinions to the public for a fee.

I had no real interest, lots of reservations, and a number of questions.

  1. Who would want to buy them?
  2. Wouldn’t I feel horrible if someone lost on my information?
  3. If other paid handicappers made so much money, why would they share their information?
  4. Can’t the other handicappers make a better living betting their own selections?

 I finally agreed for several reasons.

  1. Writing: 
    I enjoy being able to express my opinions and hopefully help others.
    Putting your ideas on paper, can clarify your thoughts, enabling introspection for better selections.
  2. College Tuition:
    If you make too much money, you get to pay full price.
    Even if you make a very nice living, three kids in college at $65,000+ per year can slow you down a bit.
  3. Relationships: 
    I’ve made some wonderful associations over the years. Some have become friends, and others have given me advice.

– John Rothschild

Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as

         “The Definitive Expert for Football Profitability.”  

Click Here for a New Subscriber Special !
(approx.10 games/week – check out via PayPal)

safestwagering.net

Best Selling Book #1

(also available at Amazon and ITunes)

Book #2 available 7-15-16.

Money Management: Part I

Money Management:  Part I

1) Systems:
Forget about set systems.
Some people do make money on systems.
The ones who sell them.

2)  Determine the utility of your capital:
Do you view gambling as entertainment or an investment.
It can be a fun and actually inexpensive leisurely indulgence.
If you’re a $20 bettor you can spend all day at the racetrack
and lose less than $200.
You’ll spend lots more taking a family of 4 to most professional sporting events.
If you bet $100/game each week on Monday Night Football without doing any
research, you should break even losing only the vigorous
which would be $5/week (17 weeks/season with the bye).

You could rent a movie each week for more.

If you bought my first book you should be attempting to maximize profit over
the long term.

Proper money management practices can increase your bankroll
by a few percentage points each season.
This can  increase ROI dramatically.
You’ll see.

3)  Emotion:
We’re human and prone to believe in intuition or subjectivity that has no place in sports wagering.
Sometimes it’s difficult to stick to the plan.
You better.

4)  Bankroll Management:
This is simple.
Don’t ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any one game.
Don’t ever expose more than 10% of your bankroll on any given series of plays.
When you have more money you’ll be able to increase your wagers.
If your bankroll decreases, show patience and bet less until things change.
They will.

Top 8 mistakes sports bettors make:

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

In gambling, the many must lose in order that the few may win.
-George Bernard Shaw  (Is this you?)

Top 8 mistakes sports bettors make:

1. Not shopping for odds.
Competing Sportsbooks offer odds that can vary from a half, to as
high as 2+ points. Many games are decided by very small margins against the spread.
Increasing your winning percentage by as little as 1%-2% can dramatically increase
your profits at the end of a season.

2. Weigh recent events or trends too heavily:
a) We have instant access to everything, whether radio, TV or on-line.
Events are already built into the line.
Rare exceptions can be made if you get information before others,
but that’s not going to happen very often.
b)  Trend handicappers lose.
Trends either even out over time or are built into the line.

3. Bet on a feeling:
Emotion should be reserved until game time.
As difficult as this sounds, I often advise never to wager on your home town team.
Most tend to over value their abilities.
This one is tough for many, and the only one I admit I’ve broken on occasion.

4. Parlay or Tease:
These bets tie two or more together with hopes for bigger payouts.
a)  A parlay includes multiple bets. You have to win each to collect.
b)  A teaser includes multiple bets with adjusted point spreads.
The gambler gets points in their favor, but again needs to win all bets to cover.

There are two factors that make these wagers inadvisable.
a)  Sportsbooks take out a greater percentage, making long term ROI more difficult.
b) Unexpected outcomes occur frequently.
You only need to win 53% of your games to show a profit.
Lose only one with these exotic bets and you lose everything.
Sportsbooks love to take action on parlays and teasers.

5. Bet more than 10% of your bankroll:
I don’t care how good you are. You will have losing streaks.
You can always increase your wagers as your bankroll grows.

6. Increase bet size after a big loss:
Time to check into gamblers anonymous.

7. Borrow to wager:
You’ve probably already been to gamblers anonymous and it didn’t help.

8. Believe self-proclaimed handicapper’s results without research:
Some claim to have winning percentages as high as 80%.
You would have a greater chance of getting eaten by a shark on your
way to pick up the newspaper.
There are a few that make money every year, but probably less than 1%.

Good Luck This Weekend.
John Rothschild

Best Selling Book #1
(also available at Amazon and ITunes)
Book #2   will be available July 15th, 2016
Contact:    john@safestwagering.net

Scary Wagering Numbers

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

1) On Any Given Day:
4% of those who wager on horses show a profit.
Ask a typical gambler leaving any gaming establishment if they made money.
They didn’t win.
They didn’t lose.
They broke even.
They lied.

 2)  In Any Given Season:
3% of those betting on football get money back from their sports book.

This says it all.
From The late Bob Martin, manager of Las Vegas’s first sportsbook:
“The number of bettors who win betting pro football is so small that it is
virtually the same as if no one won.”

3)  In Any Given Lifetime:
0% of those wagering in a casino show a profit.

It doesn’t get more blunt than this…..
Steve Wynn (owner of multiple billion dollar casinos) was interviewed
by Charlie Rose on 60 minutes and asked:
“Have you ever known, in your entire life, a gambler who wins here big and
walks away?”
“Never”, Wynn replied.

Rose then followed with:
“Do you know anybody over a stretch of time, who is ahead?”
Wynn replied with another unhesitating answer:
“Nope”