Category Archives: Safest Wagering News

Learn How to Spot Angles and Profit

I hope you find these angles helpful.

Learn to spot them and profit. 

game-of-knowns

You may need to do a little homework, but it will be worth it!

For The NFL:
#1:
Double Digit Favorites:
When a Double Digit favorite covers in the first half, take the under
in the 2nd half.
This has been hitting a little more than 65% .For College:
#2:
Bowl or Bubble Busters:
One of my favorites, because it can be used often.
Teams that have a long winning streak halted, or are taken out
of an anticipated bowl consideration, generally don’t cover their next games.
This works especially well for previously undefeated bowl bound teams.
 An example from a few years ago, that converted almost weekly,
is enclosed at the bottom of this newsletter* 
#3:
Ranked Underdogs Playing At Home:
You may only find this angle every few weeks.
In the long run it’s a good spot to exploit, and often worth a little
larger wager.

For College or The NFL:
#4:
Turnovers:
There is no magic formula here.
Charitable teams that throw interceptions and fumble, lose football games.
Sometimes this is a difficult stat to utilize because although turnovers
may be the result of ineffective play, many occur because players just
happen to be in the right place at the right time.
Interceptions are often the result of tipped balls.
Fumble recoveries are often the result of lucky bounces.

But…..Some teams are definitely more effective at creating
turnovers (or losing turnovers), luck or not.
A team with a +3 turnover margin will lose that game over 90 % of the time!
Teams that average a +2 turnover margin do not fare much better.

#5.
Social Networks
(This can work for The NFL, but it’s especially useful for college games.)
You may be able to access team, player or coaches private,
or not so private accounts.

The easiest may be twitter. You can’t follow everyone, but you may
want to follow some of the principles just prior to their games.
It’s important that you act as a processor.
Lots of information is either inaccurate or wishful thinking.

Earlier this season it was reported that a talented
college quarterback would probably not be playing.
He messaged me on Twitter that he was.
I went heavier on the game and made a very nice profit.


Hope some of these ideas help this weekend.

safestwagering.net
Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”    
 

              questions/contact: john@safestwagering.net
* Bowl or Bubble Buster Examples;
Following is a strong list of examples from a few years ago.
Boise State was 8-0. They lost to TCU,
and then didn’t cover against San Diego State.
Georgia Tech was 6-0. They lost to Virginia,
and then didn’t cover against Miami.
Clemson was 8-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against Wake Forest.
Wisconsin was 6-0.They lost to Michigan State,
and then didn’t cover against Ohio State.
N. Carolina was 3-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against E. Carolina.
California was 3-0. They lost to Washington,
and then didn’t cover against Oregon.
Texas was 4-0.They lost to Iowa State,
and then didn’t cover against Oklahoma.
Alabama was 8-0. They lost to LSU,
and then didn’t cover against Mississippi State.
Only 3 teams that season did not implode after losing their first big game following a winning streak. They were: Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

 

Preseason Football Wagering Tips

Preseason football is the only major US sport that takes meaningful wagering action.
I used to think these games were unplayable, until I met a handicapper who had some
unique insights and did very well.

These “practice” games usually have no correlation with the “real” ones.
Final outcomes ATS, are often based more on coaches intent than team ability.

Pay attention to the following.

a) Coaches Press conferences:
You don’t get much information from these commercially driven TV shows,
but coaches often indicate how long starters will play, especially the quarterback.
Some have a history of protecting personnel, and would rather play remote backups after the first quarter. Other coaches need to win.

b) The third preseason game of the year will mimic a team’s ability the most.
Generally the starters play the longest in these games. These contests may also give
valuable insight into how a team will perform during the beginning of the regular season.
There are exceptions. Capitalize on these!

Example of a great Preseason Money Making Opportunity:

In 2012 The Philadelphia Eagles played their 3rd preseason game against The Cleveland Browns. Their first real game of the season was also against The Browns. The Eagles had a proven core of veterans, while The Browns were more interested in testing their new rookie quarterback and younger personnel. It seemed pretty obvious that Philadelphia’s coach would not want to risk game-plan exposure in Game 3, and would opt to make Game 2 (against The Patriots) the real preseason test for his starters. We jumped on the Game 2 line as soon as it was available, before it moved almost 5 points! The Eagles ended up covering by over 10 points.

Early Season Football Angles

For the next few weeks I’ll be forwarding:
a) Angles that will be useful at the beginning of football season.
b) Excerpts from my newest handicapping book.

1.  Returning College Starters:
This can be a huge angle early in the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.
Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior
starters who are replacing underclassmen.

A great example:
In 2014, the team with  the most returning starters was The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners.
Their first game of the season was against The Houston Cougars.
The early preseason line in late July was Houston -13.
Smart money immediately took The Roadrunners who ended up going off at +8.5 at gametime. They won 27 to 7 covering the number by 28.5 points!

USTA ended the season 4-8, losing to some poor teams as younger players
on other squads got better.

2.  Veteran College Offensive Lines:
Teams returning more offensive line starters have a greater opportunity to
be competitive early in the season. An extra advantage goes to those teams
that also return the same starting quarterback.
This angle diminishes as the season progresses.
Other teams may get more competitive later on, while the ones that were
better earlier  improve less.

5 Football Teams to follow for Early Season Profits

Starting in mid-August, I’ll be releasing a new video each week that
will help identify teams with the best chance of covering ATS (against the spread).

It’s important to build your bankroll early so that you can earn
more as the season progresses.

You’ll be receiving angles that should convert at certain times of the year when teams are in specific situations.
You’ll also be receiving something else that will give you an edge on the competition,
handicapping mistakes to avoid.

Let’s look at a few college teams worth watching early.
Situations change…. so stay tuned.

Teams that may have early season statistical advantages:
The Tennessee Volunteers-
Recently they’ve been one of the weaker SEC programs.
They may not be ready to compete with the elite, but should be improved.
The Volunteers upgraded their recruiting efforts in the last few years and may now
have some of the strongest young offensive and defensive lines in college football.

The Utah Utes-
In horse racing we call our capable but unflashy stock, “grinders”.
Utah has always seemed like a grinder to me.
They often get the job done, but without the flamboyance of
programs with more national exposure.
This season, while maintaining their solid core components,
they’re returning some nice skill players that may be able to compete at the next level.

Teams that you may want to avoid early.

The TCU Horned Frogs-
A few years ago had one of the best defenses in the country.
Last year they had one of the most prolific offenses and are returning almost
all of their starters. Their quarterback is a legitimate Heisman candidate.
TCU may be one of the elite teams in the country, but will be overbet.

The UCF Knights-
Although they have one of the largest student bodies
in the country, their football program has never been considered
elite, but has improved lots in recent years. This could be an off year.
They’ve lost many key personnel, and most of their secondary.

The Auburn Tigers-
They’ve got a good young quarterback, but lost almost
all of their defensive backs. They may be a great team to side
against early, and then cover as the season progresses.

Making Money Now

As most of you know, one of the main reasons I’ve been successful
is because I only handicap 2 sports, Football  and Horse Racing
You’re always going to have some losing weeks, but so far 2015 has been our best year ever.

You can check actual copies of wagering tickets at:
http://www.safestwagering.net/results/

Racing isn’t finished altogether while I’m in Saratoga.
Anyone who signs up for early football will also get my racing selections.

Special Price Ends August 5th

John Rothschild
http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/261648