- Returning Starters:
This can be huge the first week of the season.
Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.
Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior
starters who are replacing underclassmen.
- a) Teams returning both kickers and their starting quarterback dramatically
increase the conversion rate.
- b) Some of these teams that perennially have poorer records revert
back to their prior levels of futility, and are often good to go against
after the 2nd game of the season.
- Teams with Top Ranked Recruits:
Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.
This is often already built into the line.
- In addition, those “top recruits” may:
a) Not be on the field.
b) Need to get acclimated to college football.
c) May not be as capable at this level.
- Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.
Many players/teams will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.
In recent years, teams that go 0-4 in preseason, not only don’t cover,
but don’t win their first real game almost 70% of the time.
College or NFL:
- The Second Week of The Season:
The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.
After the first game of the season the betting populous only
have one game to draw on.
Teams that win blowouts are overbet.
Teams that are blownout are underbet.
Some of my selections may not always be top 20 match-ups.
The goal is simply to win, even if some games are less significant.