Category Archives: NFL Preseason

Early Season Angles That Convert

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College: 

  1.   Returning Starters:

This can be huge the first week of the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.

Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior

starters who are replacing underclassmen.

In addition:

  1.    a)  Teams returning both kickers and their starting quarterback dramatically

increase the conversion rate.

  1.    b)  Some of these teams that perennially have poorer records revert

back to their prior levels of futility, and are often good to go against

after the 2nd game of the season.

  1.  Teams with  Top Ranked Recruits:   

Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.

This is often already built into the line.

  1. In addition, those “top recruits” may:
    a)  Not be on the field.
    b)  Need to get acclimated to college football.
    c)  May not be as capable at this level.
  1.  Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.

Many players/teams will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.

NFL: 

In recent years,  teams that go 0-4 in preseason, not only don’t cover,

but don’t win their first real game almost 70% of the time.

College or NFL:

  1. The Second Week of The Season:

The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.

It doesn’t.

After the first game of the season the betting populous only

have one game to draw on.

Teams that win blowouts are overbet.

Teams that are blownout are underbet.

Note:

Some of my selections may not always be top 20 match-ups.

The goal is simply to win, even if some games are less significant.

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Preseason Football Wagering Tips

Preseason football is the only major US sport that takes meaningful wagering action.
I used to think these games were unplayable, until I met a handicapper who had some
unique insights and did very well.

These “practice” games usually have no correlation with the “real” ones.
Final outcomes ATS, are often based more on coaches intent than team ability.

Pay attention to the following.

a) Coaches Press conferences:
You don’t get much information from these commercially driven TV shows,
but coaches often indicate how long starters will play, especially the quarterback.
Some have a history of protecting personnel, and would rather play remote backups after the first quarter. Other coaches need to win.

b) The third preseason game of the year will mimic a team’s ability the most.
Generally the starters play the longest in these games. These contests may also give
valuable insight into how a team will perform during the beginning of the regular season.
There are exceptions. Capitalize on these!

Example of a great Preseason Money Making Opportunity:

In 2012 The Philadelphia Eagles played their 3rd preseason game against The Cleveland Browns. Their first real game of the season was also against The Browns. The Eagles had a proven core of veterans, while The Browns were more interested in testing their new rookie quarterback and younger personnel. It seemed pretty obvious that Philadelphia’s coach would not want to risk game-plan exposure in Game 3, and would opt to make Game 2 (against The Patriots) the real preseason test for his starters. We jumped on the Game 2 line as soon as it was available, before it moved almost 5 points! The Eagles ended up covering by over 10 points.