There’s one thing you just can’t change….. Luck

Luck:
Don’t be too hard on yourself.
Luck is a factor beyond your control.
It often seems like the other team gets more breaks, but in the end these even out.
Our capital can be taken hostage by bad calls, poor judgment, unique bounces, and injuries.

Following is one of the more exasperating calls that took money out of my pocket.
It occurred late in the 4th quarter of the “Pinstripe Bowl” between The Kansas State Wildcats and
The Syracuse Orange.
I had The Wildcats +1.

Kansas State had the momentum, but Syracuse was leading 36-28 with little time left on the clock.
Something needed to happen quickly.
It did.
Wildcat receiver Adrian Hilburn caught a 30-yard touchdown pass.
A two-point conversion would tie the game.

After the catch, Hilburn gave an innocuous military style salute, and was unbelievably
flagged 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Rule 9-2-1d states that a penalty is justified for “any delayed, excessive, prolonged or choreographed act
by which a player attempts to focus attention on himself [or themselves].”

The ball was then placed on the 18,    instead of the 3-yard line.
Kansas State couldn’t convert, and lost.

Ironically, this game followed a contest between Army and SMU.
Do you think Army would have been penalized for a salute after a touchdown?

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Preseason Football Wagering Tips

Preseason football is the only major US sport that takes meaningful wagering action.
I used to think these games were unplayable, until I met a handicapper who had some
unique insights and did very well.

These “practice” games usually have no correlation with the “real” ones.
Final outcomes ATS, are often based more on coaches intent than team ability.

Pay attention to the following.

a) Coaches Press conferences:
You don’t get much information from these commercially driven TV shows,
but coaches often indicate how long starters will play, especially the quarterback.
Some have a history of protecting personnel, and would rather play remote backups after the first quarter. Other coaches need to win.

b) The third preseason game of the year will mimic a team’s ability the most.
Generally the starters play the longest in these games. These contests may also give
valuable insight into how a team will perform during the beginning of the regular season.
There are exceptions. Capitalize on these!

Example of a great Preseason Money Making Opportunity:

In 2012 The Philadelphia Eagles played their 3rd preseason game against The Cleveland Browns. Their first real game of the season was also against The Browns. The Eagles had a proven core of veterans, while The Browns were more interested in testing their new rookie quarterback and younger personnel. It seemed pretty obvious that Philadelphia’s coach would not want to risk game-plan exposure in Game 3, and would opt to make Game 2 (against The Patriots) the real preseason test for his starters. We jumped on the Game 2 line as soon as it was available, before it moved almost 5 points! The Eagles ended up covering by over 10 points.

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Early Season Football Angles

For the next few weeks I’ll be forwarding:
a) Angles that will be useful at the beginning of football season.
b) Excerpts from my newest handicapping book.

1.  Returning College Starters:
This can be a huge angle early in the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.
Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior
starters who are replacing underclassmen.

A great example:
In 2014, the team with  the most returning starters was The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners.
Their first game of the season was against The Houston Cougars.
The early preseason line in late July was Houston -13.
Smart money immediately took The Roadrunners who ended up going off at +8.5 at gametime. They won 27 to 7 covering the number by 28.5 points!

USTA ended the season 4-8, losing to some poor teams as younger players
on other squads got better.

2.  Veteran College Offensive Lines:
Teams returning more offensive line starters have a greater opportunity to
be competitive early in the season. An extra advantage goes to those teams
that also return the same starting quarterback.
This angle diminishes as the season progresses.
Other teams may get more competitive later on, while the ones that were
better earlier  improve less.

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5 Football Teams to follow for Early Season Profits

Starting in mid-August, I’ll be releasing a new video each week that
will help identify teams with the best chance of covering ATS (against the spread).

It’s important to build your bankroll early so that you can earn
more as the season progresses.

You’ll be receiving angles that should convert at certain times of the year when teams are in specific situations.
You’ll also be receiving something else that will give you an edge on the competition,
handicapping mistakes to avoid.

Let’s look at a few college teams worth watching early.
Situations change…. so stay tuned.

Teams that may have early season statistical advantages:
The Tennessee Volunteers-
Recently they’ve been one of the weaker SEC programs.
They may not be ready to compete with the elite, but should be improved.
The Volunteers upgraded their recruiting efforts in the last few years and may now
have some of the strongest young offensive and defensive lines in college football.

The Utah Utes-
In horse racing we call our capable but unflashy stock, “grinders”.
Utah has always seemed like a grinder to me.
They often get the job done, but without the flamboyance of
programs with more national exposure.
This season, while maintaining their solid core components,
they’re returning some nice skill players that may be able to compete at the next level.

Teams that you may want to avoid early.

The TCU Horned Frogs-
A few years ago had one of the best defenses in the country.
Last year they had one of the most prolific offenses and are returning almost
all of their starters. Their quarterback is a legitimate Heisman candidate.
TCU may be one of the elite teams in the country, but will be overbet.

The UCF Knights-
Although they have one of the largest student bodies
in the country, their football program has never been considered
elite, but has improved lots in recent years. This could be an off year.
They’ve lost many key personnel, and most of their secondary.

The Auburn Tigers-
They’ve got a good young quarterback, but lost almost
all of their defensive backs. They may be a great team to side
against early, and then cover as the season progresses.

Making Money Now

As most of you know, one of the main reasons I’ve been successful
is because I only handicap 2 sports, Football  and Horse Racing
You’re always going to have some losing weeks, but so far 2015 has been our best year ever.

You can check actual copies of wagering tickets at:
http://www.safestwagering.net/results/

Racing isn’t finished altogether while I’m in Saratoga.
Anyone who signs up for early football will also get my racing selections.

Special Price Ends August 5th

John Rothschild
http://www.smashwords.com/books/view/261648

NFL Super Bowl XLIX: New England Patriots Versus Seattle Seahawks.

New England Patriots Versus Seattle Seahawks.

 

 

The best way the Patriots can take the tarnish of football impropriety off of their

3 Lombardi trophies is by just winning today.

Most of the country seems to be rooting for Seattle, while most of the big early

money was bet on New England.

 

There’s no need for another repetitive analysis of match-ups or player’s attitudes.

We’ve heard it all for the last 14 days.

 

There were no major news stories since the conference championships so we got to talk

about air pressure. Anything else remotely sexy and these discussions may have

only lasted a few days.

We didn’t hear about Ted Kennedy driving under the influence at Chappaquiddick

for 72 hours because Neil Armstrong was taking his “small” step on the moon.

The country quickly forgot about House Rep Gary Condit’s murder accusation

after September 10th 2001.

 

Luckily today will be just about football.

 

Here’s what I see.

We can discount The Patriots dominating win over The Colts.

Indianapolis isn’t quite ready.

We can’t discount The Seahawks poor play for 55 minutes against The Packers.

Green Bay imploded on Offense, Defense, Coaching and Special teams.

 

Both teams are capable of stopping the run. On paper defense should dominate.

The total has already dropped two points.

I would expect to see a little more of Russel Wilson scrambling to keep the Patriots honest.

I would expect to see some quick empty set passes from Tom Brady to help keep the Seahawks defensive line

out of his backfield.

 

You never know, but I think Tom Brady will be fine with a few more PSI today.

 

I like New England  +1  (this line is available at some books at 11:45 EST)

 

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Breaking Bad...Streaks!

2015 College Football Playoff National Championship: Oregon Ducks Vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

2015 College Football Playoff National Championship: Oregon Ducks Vs. Ohio State Buckeyes 

safest-wagering-breaking-bad-streaks
 
          We know the components and have seen them perform.
          We have all heard the commonality of analysis and questions.
       1)  Can Ohio State’s 3rd string quarterback execute against Oregon’s defense?
       2)  Can Marcus Mariotta be as effective and elusive against one of
            the best defenses in the country ?
       3)  How does Oregon react to additional injuries and suspensions?
       4)  Does continuity at every position except quarterback help Ohio State
             more than Oregon.
       5) Which coach does a better job with his animate chess pieces?
              Explanations and Answers:
        1)     Ohio State crushed Wisconsin. I originally discounted the win a little
              because it seems The Badger players knew (before the public)
              that their coach was leaving.
              The best way The Buckeyes could validate that dominating
              win was by beating #1 rated Alabama.
              They did.
        2)  This may surprise some, but the school with the second
              best rated recent recruiting record is not an SEC team.
              It’s Ohio State, who attracted 71 four-five star recruits,
              compared to Oregon’s 38.
              This has given The Buckeyes great depth.
              The Ducks have done a great job dealing with multiple injuries.
              But they are more banged up than Ohio State.
       3)   Oregon has lost another key receiver Darren Carrington.
              You can also throw in Ayele Forde (RB).
       4)   Finally and maybe most importantly, coaching:
               Mark Helfrich has done a great job replacing Chip Kelly.
               He was originally a little known Offensive Coordinator and quarterbacks coach
               for some very bad Colorado teams.
               Entering tonight’s game he’s an impressive 24-3 as a head coach.
              Urban Meyer has a bowl record of 8-2.
              He almost always covers the point spread.
              His staff is as deep and talented as any in college football.
              He outcoached Nick Saban in The Sugar Bowl.
After last weekend, we’ve seen that anything can happen:
          1)  If the usually well coached Patriots run the ball more than a few times in the 2nd half,
               they probably cover.
2)  If Dez Bryant wasn’t such a competitor, The Cowboys score at the end of yesterday’s game

                 and The Over covers.

3)   And what happened in Denver surprised some of the sharpest.

               Sportsbook managers expected the line to remain stagnant and it went up 3 points.
               Not because smart money expected Manning to suddenly revert back to prior year form,
               but because his offense was healthy, and because their capable defense would contain The Colts.
They didn’t
                                  I give the edge to The Ohio State Buckeyes +6 

 

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Handicapping angles

great

You Don’t Want to Miss These Angles !


Learn to Identify Value.

No Illusions:
Nothing that follows will make you a guaranteed winner. Everything that follows
will help increase your winning percentage on a consistent basis.
Some are simple to apply. Some require a little homework.

Most handicappers lose because they only base analysis on recent past performance, which is already factored into the line. That’s why the seemingly “Sure Fire” wins, hardly ever are. Foresight is a word often used but rarely utilized.

The goal is simply to win. It doesn’t matter if certain games are less significant.

1. Local Press Coverage:
Everyone gets the same national sports news, but not the local insights. Years ago, prior to the proliferation of the internet, one of the most successful old school gamblers (Billy Walters), had an ingenious way to get local information. He would put together cleaning crews, send them to McCarran Airport (Vegas), and gather up newspapers left on the planes that were arriving from all over the country. Publications from small college towns were especially useful.
a) Radio, TV, and the Internet:
Today you can access anything within seconds. There’s little to gain by following the major networks. Almost all of their information is based on prior week results, and is obviously available to everyone.
It’s easy to find hometown radio stations on-line, to get detailed local insights.
A few words of caution:
Be aware that some local coverage will be biased in favor of the hometown team. Many local radio analysts tend to dramatize and be overly critical. Some can enlighten, others just like to hear themselves talk.
When handicapping or writing I always have some local sports station playing in the background. I often get extra information that either validates a selection, or will cause me to reconsider.

b) Interviews:
Coach and player interviews are the most advantageous press angles. Pay attention and use your intuition. Listen for inflection and intonation, as well as content.
Following is an example that’s reprinted from one of my newsletters. This was published the day after Christmas, in 2011. I changed my original selection after watching pregame interviews.
North Carolina Tar Heels Vs. Missouri Tigers (-4):
Both teams have played well against better, and worse against lesser. Under normal circumstances I would favor The North Carolina Tar Heels, especially getting points. Even though Missouri has won their last 3 games, they were against teams with issues or inability.
Here are the last three teams Missouri played:
Kansas just isn’t/wasn’t very good.
Texas Tech’s game plan was limited, after their coach got into legal trouble.
Texas had major, multiple injuries at running back.
The Tar Heels look like the easy play, but… It was recently announced that they are getting a new head of football operations, Larry Fedora, who won’t be on the sidelines until next year. Their “lame duck” coach, Everett Withers, says all the right things in press conferences, but his inflection belies a different attitude. After a little more research, I found out that he’d be an assistant at Ohio State next year. In addition, there’s also uncertainty over who will be suiting up this evening. A little added extra information: I watched a few Tar Heel player interviews, and some were talking more about nocturnal activities than football.
Result:
North Carolina took an early lead on ability 7-0. Missouri scored the next 31 points en route to an easy win, and had their 2nd string in by the end of the game.

2. Specialize:
When I first started handicapping horses, I focused on one track, and only a few different classes (categories or levels of horses). I learned everything I could about a relatively limited and finite group. I didn’t have the opportunity to make many wagers, but did have the opportunity to cash lots of winning tickets. This is important for those with limited time. You can become an expert in one sport, one division, or one conference. There are just too many teams to follow. This is especially useful for college football.

3. Make Your Own Point Spreads:
For those new to the game, this may sound challenging, but it almost becomes intrinsic as you develop your handicapping skills.
Try this. Prior to seeing the actual numbers, have a friend or family member quiz you on each line. After a while, you may be able to guess most within a point or two. If the line seems wrong you have lots of options.
a) Don’t play the game.
b) Find out why the line has projected differently, and see if you’ve missed something.
c) Middle the game.
d) Make some money.

Have a game related question?
We try to respond to everyone at John@safestwagering.net

Some Free Stuff! We’ll feature a new chapter each week from our Best Selling “Rothschild’s Guide to Football Handicapping”

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Chapter 1: It’s Really Possible

*****

   Las Vegas is the only city in the world where you can arrive in a $40,000 vehicle and go home in one worth a quarter million… A Greyhound.

 

 

It’s finally fall. Overhead, the faded greens, burnt yellows and bright oranges blur together resembling a giant patchwork quilt draping the landscape. The leaves have begun their yearly gravitational pilgrimage, and are now comfortably residing in my backyard.

Only two things come to mind. The damn things need to be raked, and it’s Football Season!

 

I just flew in from Las Vegas from my annual conference with some of the most knowledgeable handicappers in the business. These are hard working guys who legally make lots of money wagering. We share theories and statistics prior to each season, hopefully gaining every possible advantage.

Mike J. is a former scientist, who thought that his mathematical models would enable a lifestyle change. They did.

Mike T. is a former CSI style detective who relies more on theory, and developing possible game scenarios, hoping to increase his winning %. It has.

Sean is a processor, who has unique decision making abilities when our separate analyses conflict. This usually means that, no matter how much research we’ve done, some of our picks are unplayable. This saves lots of our money for future investment. His best attribute is keeping a positive attitude when the inevitable losing streaks don’t gracefully exit quickly enough.

There are NO systems for winning seasons. There are systems and angles that will dramatically increase your winning % for individual games.

 

Only two forms of wagering offer a realistic certainty of profit and even early retirement, Horse Racing, and betting on spectator sports… especially football. Both allow you to compete with your contemporaries, instead of the house.

Thanks to the benevolence of sports books and racetracks, wagering paid for my wedding. It didn’t hurt that my competition often risked their capital without the proper techniques, and had little willpower.

My first involvement in the wagering business came as a horse owner. Winning a racing wager involves picking the best horse out of 10 or more. Winning a football game only involves 2 options, but similar skill sets. If you use proper money management, you can win less than 60% of your games and still have substantial profits.

There are NO illusionary systems in this book for two reasons. Most are complicated and time consuming, and they don’t work! The ideas presented are easy to understand and implement. They are intended for anyone from the seasoned professional, to those who want to impress their friends or spouses. You won’t need to know every player on a side, or every formation in a playbook. You’ll become a successful processor, who takes readily available data to find winners. The Internet supplies an unlimited library of information. Others do the work for us to interpret and profit!

In addition, this book is not intended to be a complicated exercise in mathematical probability. When finished, you’ll be able to find angles that will give a statistical advantage, while hopefully getting you to think “outside of the box”.

The last chapter includes a test that contains 11 real life game situations. See how many winners you can pick, and see if you’re ready.

 

Best Wishes,

John Rothschild                 www.safestwagering.net