Author Archives: nabwd

Learn How to Spot Angles and Profit

I hope you find these angles helpful.

Learn to spot them and profit. 

game-of-knowns

You may need to do a little homework, but it will be worth it!

For The NFL:
#1:
Double Digit Favorites:
When a Double Digit favorite covers in the first half, take the under
in the 2nd half.
This has been hitting a little more than 65% .For College:
#2:
Bowl or Bubble Busters:
One of my favorites, because it can be used often.
Teams that have a long winning streak halted, or are taken out
of an anticipated bowl consideration, generally don’t cover their next games.
This works especially well for previously undefeated bowl bound teams.
 An example from a few years ago, that converted almost weekly,
is enclosed at the bottom of this newsletter* 
#3:
Ranked Underdogs Playing At Home:
You may only find this angle every few weeks.
In the long run it’s a good spot to exploit, and often worth a little
larger wager.

For College or The NFL:
#4:
Turnovers:
There is no magic formula here.
Charitable teams that throw interceptions and fumble, lose football games.
Sometimes this is a difficult stat to utilize because although turnovers
may be the result of ineffective play, many occur because players just
happen to be in the right place at the right time.
Interceptions are often the result of tipped balls.
Fumble recoveries are often the result of lucky bounces.

But…..Some teams are definitely more effective at creating
turnovers (or losing turnovers), luck or not.
A team with a +3 turnover margin will lose that game over 90 % of the time!
Teams that average a +2 turnover margin do not fare much better.

#5.
Social Networks
(This can work for The NFL, but it’s especially useful for college games.)
You may be able to access team, player or coaches private,
or not so private accounts.

The easiest may be twitter. You can’t follow everyone, but you may
want to follow some of the principles just prior to their games.
It’s important that you act as a processor.
Lots of information is either inaccurate or wishful thinking.

Earlier this season it was reported that a talented
college quarterback would probably not be playing.
He messaged me on Twitter that he was.
I went heavier on the game and made a very nice profit.


Hope some of these ideas help this weekend.

safestwagering.net
Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”    
 

              questions/contact: john@safestwagering.net
* Bowl or Bubble Buster Examples;
Following is a strong list of examples from a few years ago.
Boise State was 8-0. They lost to TCU,
and then didn’t cover against San Diego State.
Georgia Tech was 6-0. They lost to Virginia,
and then didn’t cover against Miami.
Clemson was 8-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against Wake Forest.
Wisconsin was 6-0.They lost to Michigan State,
and then didn’t cover against Ohio State.
N. Carolina was 3-0. They lost to Georgia Tech,
and then didn’t cover against E. Carolina.
California was 3-0. They lost to Washington,
and then didn’t cover against Oregon.
Texas was 4-0.They lost to Iowa State,
and then didn’t cover against Oklahoma.
Alabama was 8-0. They lost to LSU,
and then didn’t cover against Mississippi State.
Only 3 teams that season did not implode after losing their first big game following a winning streak. They were: Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.

 

Angles for Wagering on The NFL: Part 1

Hopefully some will be useful this week.
Parts II thru VII will be released during the next 10 days.

1. Early Lines:
These can be your best wagering values.
I had two for today that have already moved substantially.
Those who make the lines usually create numbers close to the
public consensus and final game result, but they do make mistakes.
Jump on these.

Lines come out 8-9 days prior to games. At the time of this writing
The Las Vegas Hilton (or now The LVH) may be your best source
for this advanced information. Try to make your own lines before interpreting those that are posted. It gets easier with practice.

On average, I find approximately 1-3 mistakes per week.
The sharp money attacks these numbers early.

A Fictitious Example:
The Cleveland Browns are playing the Kansas City Chiefs.
Nine days prior to kickoff, the line opens at Browns -2.5.
Early money quickly bets The Chiefs, taking the line
to Browns + 2.5.
The public then takes The Browns, changing the number
to a pick-em.

This tells us two things:
1) The early smart researcher gets much more value
for their money.
2) This could be a great play for those who like to middle.
If they wager on both sides of the game, and the number
falls between -2 and + 2, they win each bet, while only risking one.

2. Missing The Early Lines:
OK, so you got tied up doing something else and missed
checking the early lines.
Or, maybe you don’t feel confident enough yet deciphering
this preliminary data.
Check where the line opened earliest, and see how it’s moved.
There is a definite advantage to analyzing a side that took
the earliest action. You just won’t get the same value as the
ambitious sharp money.
Note: If the early line has moved more than 3 points, you may
have missed your opportunity.

3. The 20 Point Rebound:
What happened last week probably won’t be replicated the next.
In addition, two competing teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.

What to look for.
A match-up of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS
or more, against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage.
The larger the spread or point disparity the greater the betting opportunity.

Note that we are not attempting to pick a straight up underdog winner,
but just cover ATS.

4. The Favorite Rebound:
A favorite that was blown out in their prior game and is now
an underdog, is often a good bet. This is just thinking differently
than the general public who likes favorites, and in most cases only
uses their most recent recollections to formulate new ones.

A word of caution.
Unless a team is playoff bound, this angle is not as strong at the
end of the season, when some teams are getting ready
for the golf course.

Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”    
 

SafestWagering.com: Why I Charge

Rothschild's Guide to Football Handicapping

I’m often asked why I charge for selections.

In 2003, two of my original investors and mentors asked if I would be interested in offering my wagering opinions to the public for a fee.

I had no real interest, lots of reservations, and a number of questions.

  1. Who would want to buy them?
  2. Wouldn’t I feel horrible if someone lost on my information?
  3. If other paid handicappers made so much money, why would they share their information?
  4. Can’t the other handicappers make a better living betting their own selections?

 I finally agreed for several reasons.

  1. Writing: 
    I enjoy being able to express my opinions and hopefully help others.
    Putting your ideas on paper, can clarify your thoughts, enabling introspection for better selections.
  2. College Tuition:
    If you make too much money, you get to pay full price.
    Even if you make a very nice living, three kids in college at $65,000+ per year can slow you down a bit.
  3. Relationships: 
    I’ve made some wonderful associations over the years. Some have become friends, and others have given me advice.

– John Rothschild

Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as

         “The Definitive Expert for Football Profitability.”  

Click Here for a New Subscriber Special !
(approx.10 games/week – check out via PayPal)

safestwagering.net

Best Selling Book #1

(also available at Amazon and ITunes)

Book #2 available 7-15-16.

Money Management: Part I

Money Management:  Part I

1) Systems:
Forget about set systems.
Some people do make money on systems.
The ones who sell them.

2)  Determine the utility of your capital:
Do you view gambling as entertainment or an investment.
It can be a fun and actually inexpensive leisurely indulgence.
If you’re a $20 bettor you can spend all day at the racetrack
and lose less than $200.
You’ll spend lots more taking a family of 4 to most professional sporting events.
If you bet $100/game each week on Monday Night Football without doing any
research, you should break even losing only the vigorous
which would be $5/week (17 weeks/season with the bye).

You could rent a movie each week for more.

If you bought my first book you should be attempting to maximize profit over
the long term.

Proper money management practices can increase your bankroll
by a few percentage points each season.
This can  increase ROI dramatically.
You’ll see.

3)  Emotion:
We’re human and prone to believe in intuition or subjectivity that has no place in sports wagering.
Sometimes it’s difficult to stick to the plan.
You better.

4)  Bankroll Management:
This is simple.
Don’t ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any one game.
Don’t ever expose more than 10% of your bankroll on any given series of plays.
When you have more money you’ll be able to increase your wagers.
If your bankroll decreases, show patience and bet less until things change.
They will.

Top 8 mistakes sports bettors make:

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

In gambling, the many must lose in order that the few may win.
-George Bernard Shaw  (Is this you?)

Top 8 mistakes sports bettors make:

1. Not shopping for odds.
Competing Sportsbooks offer odds that can vary from a half, to as
high as 2+ points. Many games are decided by very small margins against the spread.
Increasing your winning percentage by as little as 1%-2% can dramatically increase
your profits at the end of a season.

2. Weigh recent events or trends too heavily:
a) We have instant access to everything, whether radio, TV or on-line.
Events are already built into the line.
Rare exceptions can be made if you get information before others,
but that’s not going to happen very often.
b)  Trend handicappers lose.
Trends either even out over time or are built into the line.

3. Bet on a feeling:
Emotion should be reserved until game time.
As difficult as this sounds, I often advise never to wager on your home town team.
Most tend to over value their abilities.
This one is tough for many, and the only one I admit I’ve broken on occasion.

4. Parlay or Tease:
These bets tie two or more together with hopes for bigger payouts.
a)  A parlay includes multiple bets. You have to win each to collect.
b)  A teaser includes multiple bets with adjusted point spreads.
The gambler gets points in their favor, but again needs to win all bets to cover.

There are two factors that make these wagers inadvisable.
a)  Sportsbooks take out a greater percentage, making long term ROI more difficult.
b) Unexpected outcomes occur frequently.
You only need to win 53% of your games to show a profit.
Lose only one with these exotic bets and you lose everything.
Sportsbooks love to take action on parlays and teasers.

5. Bet more than 10% of your bankroll:
I don’t care how good you are. You will have losing streaks.
You can always increase your wagers as your bankroll grows.

6. Increase bet size after a big loss:
Time to check into gamblers anonymous.

7. Borrow to wager:
You’ve probably already been to gamblers anonymous and it didn’t help.

8. Believe self-proclaimed handicapper’s results without research:
Some claim to have winning percentages as high as 80%.
You would have a greater chance of getting eaten by a shark on your
way to pick up the newspaper.
There are a few that make money every year, but probably less than 1%.

Good Luck This Weekend.
John Rothschild

Best Selling Book #1
(also available at Amazon and ITunes)
Book #2   will be available July 15th, 2016
Contact:    john@safestwagering.net

Early Season Angles That Convert

luck-thomas-jefferson-safest-wagering

 

College: 

  1.   Returning Starters:

This can be huge the first week of the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.

Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior

starters who are replacing underclassmen.

In addition:

  1.    a)  Teams returning both kickers and their starting quarterback dramatically

increase the conversion rate.

  1.    b)  Some of these teams that perennially have poorer records revert

back to their prior levels of futility, and are often good to go against

after the 2nd game of the season.

  1.  Teams with  Top Ranked Recruits:   

Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.

This is often already built into the line.

  1. In addition, those “top recruits” may:
    a)  Not be on the field.
    b)  Need to get acclimated to college football.
    c)  May not be as capable at this level.
  1.  Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.

Many players/teams will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.

NFL: 

In recent years,  teams that go 0-4 in preseason, not only don’t cover,

but don’t win their first real game almost 70% of the time.

College or NFL:

  1. The Second Week of The Season:

The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.

It doesn’t.

After the first game of the season the betting populous only

have one game to draw on.

Teams that win blowouts are overbet.

Teams that are blownout are underbet.

Note:

Some of my selections may not always be top 20 match-ups.

The goal is simply to win, even if some games are less significant.

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Scary Wagering Numbers

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

1) On Any Given Day:
4% of those who wager on horses show a profit.
Ask a typical gambler leaving any gaming establishment if they made money.
They didn’t win.
They didn’t lose.
They broke even.
They lied.

 2)  In Any Given Season:
3% of those betting on football get money back from their sports book.

This says it all.
From The late Bob Martin, manager of Las Vegas’s first sportsbook:
“The number of bettors who win betting pro football is so small that it is
virtually the same as if no one won.”

3)  In Any Given Lifetime:
0% of those wagering in a casino show a profit.

It doesn’t get more blunt than this…..
Steve Wynn (owner of multiple billion dollar casinos) was interviewed
by Charlie Rose on 60 minutes and asked:
“Have you ever known, in your entire life, a gambler who wins here big and
walks away?”
“Never”, Wynn replied.

Rose then followed with:
“Do you know anybody over a stretch of time, who is ahead?”
Wynn replied with another unhesitating answer:
“Nope”

Wagering Angles for the first 2 Weeks of The College Season

Note:  This information is available at #Rivals.com   -or- #ESPN.com

1)   Teams with  Top Ranked Recruits:
Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.
This is often already built into the line.

I.   In addition, those “top recruits” may:
1)  Not be on the field.
2)  Need to get acclimated to college football.
3)  May not be as capable at this level.

II.  Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.
Many players will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.

III.  Often teams with the top recruiting classes one year are attractive bets early the following year.

2)    The Second Week of The Season:
The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.
It doesn’t.
After the first game of the season the betting populous only have one game to draw on.
Teams that win blow-outs are overbet.
Teams that are blown-out are underbet.

There’s one thing you just can’t change….. Luck

Luck:
Don’t be too hard on yourself.
Luck is a factor beyond your control.
It often seems like the other team gets more breaks, but in the end these even out.
Our capital can be taken hostage by bad calls, poor judgment, unique bounces, and injuries.

Following is one of the more exasperating calls that took money out of my pocket.
It occurred late in the 4th quarter of the “Pinstripe Bowl” between The Kansas State Wildcats and
The Syracuse Orange.
I had The Wildcats +1.

Kansas State had the momentum, but Syracuse was leading 36-28 with little time left on the clock.
Something needed to happen quickly.
It did.
Wildcat receiver Adrian Hilburn caught a 30-yard touchdown pass.
A two-point conversion would tie the game.

After the catch, Hilburn gave an innocuous military style salute, and was unbelievably
flagged 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Rule 9-2-1d states that a penalty is justified for “any delayed, excessive, prolonged or choreographed act
by which a player attempts to focus attention on himself [or themselves].”

The ball was then placed on the 18,    instead of the 3-yard line.
Kansas State couldn’t convert, and lost.

Ironically, this game followed a contest between Army and SMU.
Do you think Army would have been penalized for a salute after a touchdown?