Angles for Wagering on The NFL: Part 1

Hopefully some will be useful this week.
Parts II thru VII will be released during the next 10 days.

1. Early Lines:
These can be your best wagering values.
I had two for today that have already moved substantially.
Those who make the lines usually create numbers close to the
public consensus and final game result, but they do make mistakes.
Jump on these.

Lines come out 8-9 days prior to games. At the time of this writing
The Las Vegas Hilton (or now The LVH) may be your best source
for this advanced information. Try to make your own lines before interpreting those that are posted. It gets easier with practice.

On average, I find approximately 1-3 mistakes per week.
The sharp money attacks these numbers early.

A Fictitious Example:
The Cleveland Browns are playing the Kansas City Chiefs.
Nine days prior to kickoff, the line opens at Browns -2.5.
Early money quickly bets The Chiefs, taking the line
to Browns + 2.5.
The public then takes The Browns, changing the number
to a pick-em.

This tells us two things:
1) The early smart researcher gets much more value
for their money.
2) This could be a great play for those who like to middle.
If they wager on both sides of the game, and the number
falls between -2 and + 2, they win each bet, while only risking one.

2. Missing The Early Lines:
OK, so you got tied up doing something else and missed
checking the early lines.
Or, maybe you don’t feel confident enough yet deciphering
this preliminary data.
Check where the line opened earliest, and see how it’s moved.
There is a definite advantage to analyzing a side that took
the earliest action. You just won’t get the same value as the
ambitious sharp money.
Note: If the early line has moved more than 3 points, you may
have missed your opportunity.

3. The 20 Point Rebound:
What happened last week probably won’t be replicated the next.
In addition, two competing teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.

What to look for.
A match-up of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS
or more, against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage.
The larger the spread or point disparity the greater the betting opportunity.

Note that we are not attempting to pick a straight up underdog winner,
but just cover ATS.

4. The Favorite Rebound:
A favorite that was blown out in their prior game and is now
an underdog, is often a good bet. This is just thinking differently
than the general public who likes favorites, and in most cases only
uses their most recent recollections to formulate new ones.

A word of caution.
Unless a team is playoff bound, this angle is not as strong at the
end of the season, when some teams are getting ready
for the golf course.

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Posted: October 29, 2015
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Category: Latest News