Monthly Archives: October 2015

Angles for Wagering on The NFL: Part 1

Hopefully some will be useful this week.
Parts II thru VII will be released during the next 10 days.

1. Early Lines:
These can be your best wagering values.
I had two for today that have already moved substantially.
Those who make the lines usually create numbers close to the
public consensus and final game result, but they do make mistakes.
Jump on these.

Lines come out 8-9 days prior to games. At the time of this writing
The Las Vegas Hilton (or now The LVH) may be your best source
for this advanced information. Try to make your own lines before interpreting those that are posted. It gets easier with practice.

On average, I find approximately 1-3 mistakes per week.
The sharp money attacks these numbers early.

A Fictitious Example:
The Cleveland Browns are playing the Kansas City Chiefs.
Nine days prior to kickoff, the line opens at Browns -2.5.
Early money quickly bets The Chiefs, taking the line
to Browns + 2.5.
The public then takes The Browns, changing the number
to a pick-em.

This tells us two things:
1) The early smart researcher gets much more value
for their money.
2) This could be a great play for those who like to middle.
If they wager on both sides of the game, and the number
falls between -2 and + 2, they win each bet, while only risking one.

2. Missing The Early Lines:
OK, so you got tied up doing something else and missed
checking the early lines.
Or, maybe you don’t feel confident enough yet deciphering
this preliminary data.
Check where the line opened earliest, and see how it’s moved.
There is a definite advantage to analyzing a side that took
the earliest action. You just won’t get the same value as the
ambitious sharp money.
Note: If the early line has moved more than 3 points, you may
have missed your opportunity.

3. The 20 Point Rebound:
What happened last week probably won’t be replicated the next.
In addition, two competing teams will rarely play as well or as poorly as they did in their prior games.

What to look for.
A match-up of one team that has just lost by 10 points ATS
or more, against one that has just won by double digits ATS.
The underdog will convert frequently enough in one of these contests to increase your yearly winning percentage.
The larger the spread or point disparity the greater the betting opportunity.

Note that we are not attempting to pick a straight up underdog winner,
but just cover ATS.

4. The Favorite Rebound:
A favorite that was blown out in their prior game and is now
an underdog, is often a good bet. This is just thinking differently
than the general public who likes favorites, and in most cases only
uses their most recent recollections to formulate new ones.

A word of caution.
Unless a team is playoff bound, this angle is not as strong at the
end of the season, when some teams are getting ready
for the golf course.

Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as
“The Definitive Experts in Football Profitability.”    
 

SafestWagering.com: Why I Charge

Rothschild's Guide to Football Handicapping

I’m often asked why I charge for selections.

In 2003, two of my original investors and mentors asked if I would be interested in offering my wagering opinions to the public for a fee.

I had no real interest, lots of reservations, and a number of questions.

  1. Who would want to buy them?
  2. Wouldn’t I feel horrible if someone lost on my information?
  3. If other paid handicappers made so much money, why would they share their information?
  4. Can’t the other handicappers make a better living betting their own selections?

 I finally agreed for several reasons.

  1. Writing: 
    I enjoy being able to express my opinions and hopefully help others.
    Putting your ideas on paper, can clarify your thoughts, enabling introspection for better selections.
  2. College Tuition:
    If you make too much money, you get to pay full price.
    Even if you make a very nice living, three kids in college at $65,000+ per year can slow you down a bit.
  3. Relationships: 
    I’ve made some wonderful associations over the years. Some have become friends, and others have given me advice.

– John Rothschild

Featured in The Business Journal and on ESPN radio as

         “The Definitive Expert for Football Profitability.”  

Click Here for a New Subscriber Special !
(approx.10 games/week – check out via PayPal)

safestwagering.net

Best Selling Book #1

(also available at Amazon and ITunes)

Book #2 available 7-15-16.

Money Management: Part I

Money Management:  Part I

1) Systems:
Forget about set systems.
Some people do make money on systems.
The ones who sell them.

2)  Determine the utility of your capital:
Do you view gambling as entertainment or an investment.
It can be a fun and actually inexpensive leisurely indulgence.
If you’re a $20 bettor you can spend all day at the racetrack
and lose less than $200.
You’ll spend lots more taking a family of 4 to most professional sporting events.
If you bet $100/game each week on Monday Night Football without doing any
research, you should break even losing only the vigorous
which would be $5/week (17 weeks/season with the bye).

You could rent a movie each week for more.

If you bought my first book you should be attempting to maximize profit over
the long term.

Proper money management practices can increase your bankroll
by a few percentage points each season.
This can  increase ROI dramatically.
You’ll see.

3)  Emotion:
We’re human and prone to believe in intuition or subjectivity that has no place in sports wagering.
Sometimes it’s difficult to stick to the plan.
You better.

4)  Bankroll Management:
This is simple.
Don’t ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any one game.
Don’t ever expose more than 10% of your bankroll on any given series of plays.
When you have more money you’ll be able to increase your wagers.
If your bankroll decreases, show patience and bet less until things change.
They will.