Monthly Archives: September 2015

Top 8 mistakes sports bettors make:

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

In gambling, the many must lose in order that the few may win.
-George Bernard Shaw  (Is this you?)

Top 8 mistakes sports bettors make:

1. Not shopping for odds.
Competing Sportsbooks offer odds that can vary from a half, to as
high as 2+ points. Many games are decided by very small margins against the spread.
Increasing your winning percentage by as little as 1%-2% can dramatically increase
your profits at the end of a season.

2. Weigh recent events or trends too heavily:
a) We have instant access to everything, whether radio, TV or on-line.
Events are already built into the line.
Rare exceptions can be made if you get information before others,
but that’s not going to happen very often.
b)  Trend handicappers lose.
Trends either even out over time or are built into the line.

3. Bet on a feeling:
Emotion should be reserved until game time.
As difficult as this sounds, I often advise never to wager on your home town team.
Most tend to over value their abilities.
This one is tough for many, and the only one I admit I’ve broken on occasion.

4. Parlay or Tease:
These bets tie two or more together with hopes for bigger payouts.
a)  A parlay includes multiple bets. You have to win each to collect.
b)  A teaser includes multiple bets with adjusted point spreads.
The gambler gets points in their favor, but again needs to win all bets to cover.

There are two factors that make these wagers inadvisable.
a)  Sportsbooks take out a greater percentage, making long term ROI more difficult.
b) Unexpected outcomes occur frequently.
You only need to win 53% of your games to show a profit.
Lose only one with these exotic bets and you lose everything.
Sportsbooks love to take action on parlays and teasers.

5. Bet more than 10% of your bankroll:
I don’t care how good you are. You will have losing streaks.
You can always increase your wagers as your bankroll grows.

6. Increase bet size after a big loss:
Time to check into gamblers anonymous.

7. Borrow to wager:
You’ve probably already been to gamblers anonymous and it didn’t help.

8. Believe self-proclaimed handicapper’s results without research:
Some claim to have winning percentages as high as 80%.
You would have a greater chance of getting eaten by a shark on your
way to pick up the newspaper.
There are a few that make money every year, but probably less than 1%.

Good Luck This Weekend.
John Rothschild

Best Selling Book #1
(also available at Amazon and ITunes)
Book #2   will be available July 15th, 2016
Contact:    john@safestwagering.net

Early Season Angles That Convert

luck-thomas-jefferson-safest-wagering

 

College: 

  1.   Returning Starters:

This can be huge the first week of the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.

Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior

starters who are replacing underclassmen.

In addition:

  1.    a)  Teams returning both kickers and their starting quarterback dramatically

increase the conversion rate.

  1.    b)  Some of these teams that perennially have poorer records revert

back to their prior levels of futility, and are often good to go against

after the 2nd game of the season.

  1.  Teams with  Top Ranked Recruits:   

Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.

This is often already built into the line.

  1. In addition, those “top recruits” may:
    a)  Not be on the field.
    b)  Need to get acclimated to college football.
    c)  May not be as capable at this level.
  1.  Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.

Many players/teams will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.

NFL: 

In recent years,  teams that go 0-4 in preseason, not only don’t cover,

but don’t win their first real game almost 70% of the time.

College or NFL:

  1. The Second Week of The Season:

The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.

It doesn’t.

After the first game of the season the betting populous only

have one game to draw on.

Teams that win blowouts are overbet.

Teams that are blownout are underbet.

Note:

Some of my selections may not always be top 20 match-ups.

The goal is simply to win, even if some games are less significant.

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