Monthly Archives: August 2015

Scary Wagering Numbers

Breaking Bad...Streaks!

1) On Any Given Day:
4% of those who wager on horses show a profit.
Ask a typical gambler leaving any gaming establishment if they made money.
They didn’t win.
They didn’t lose.
They broke even.
They lied.

 2)  In Any Given Season:
3% of those betting on football get money back from their sports book.

This says it all.
From The late Bob Martin, manager of Las Vegas’s first sportsbook:
“The number of bettors who win betting pro football is so small that it is
virtually the same as if no one won.”

3)  In Any Given Lifetime:
0% of those wagering in a casino show a profit.

It doesn’t get more blunt than this…..
Steve Wynn (owner of multiple billion dollar casinos) was interviewed
by Charlie Rose on 60 minutes and asked:
“Have you ever known, in your entire life, a gambler who wins here big and
walks away?”
“Never”, Wynn replied.

Rose then followed with:
“Do you know anybody over a stretch of time, who is ahead?”
Wynn replied with another unhesitating answer:
“Nope”

Wagering Angles for the first 2 Weeks of The College Season

Note:  This information is available at #Rivals.com   -or- #ESPN.com

1)   Teams with  Top Ranked Recruits:
Do not bet on a team early in the season just because they’ve had a good recruiting class.
This is often already built into the line.

I.   In addition, those “top recruits” may:
1)  Not be on the field.
2)  Need to get acclimated to college football.
3)  May not be as capable at this level.

II.  Later in the season refer back to those schools that have recruited well.
Many players will mature and catch the average bettor by surprise.

III.  Often teams with the top recruiting classes one year are attractive bets early the following year.

2)    The Second Week of The Season:
The public expects that what they saw last week, will happen the next.
It doesn’t.
After the first game of the season the betting populous only have one game to draw on.
Teams that win blow-outs are overbet.
Teams that are blown-out are underbet.

There’s one thing you just can’t change….. Luck

Luck:
Don’t be too hard on yourself.
Luck is a factor beyond your control.
It often seems like the other team gets more breaks, but in the end these even out.
Our capital can be taken hostage by bad calls, poor judgment, unique bounces, and injuries.

Following is one of the more exasperating calls that took money out of my pocket.
It occurred late in the 4th quarter of the “Pinstripe Bowl” between The Kansas State Wildcats and
The Syracuse Orange.
I had The Wildcats +1.

Kansas State had the momentum, but Syracuse was leading 36-28 with little time left on the clock.
Something needed to happen quickly.
It did.
Wildcat receiver Adrian Hilburn caught a 30-yard touchdown pass.
A two-point conversion would tie the game.

After the catch, Hilburn gave an innocuous military style salute, and was unbelievably
flagged 15 yards for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Rule 9-2-1d states that a penalty is justified for “any delayed, excessive, prolonged or choreographed act
by which a player attempts to focus attention on himself [or themselves].”

The ball was then placed on the 18,    instead of the 3-yard line.
Kansas State couldn’t convert, and lost.

Ironically, this game followed a contest between Army and SMU.
Do you think Army would have been penalized for a salute after a touchdown?

Preseason Football Wagering Tips

Preseason football is the only major US sport that takes meaningful wagering action.
I used to think these games were unplayable, until I met a handicapper who had some
unique insights and did very well.

These “practice” games usually have no correlation with the “real” ones.
Final outcomes ATS, are often based more on coaches intent than team ability.

Pay attention to the following.

a) Coaches Press conferences:
You don’t get much information from these commercially driven TV shows,
but coaches often indicate how long starters will play, especially the quarterback.
Some have a history of protecting personnel, and would rather play remote backups after the first quarter. Other coaches need to win.

b) The third preseason game of the year will mimic a team’s ability the most.
Generally the starters play the longest in these games. These contests may also give
valuable insight into how a team will perform during the beginning of the regular season.
There are exceptions. Capitalize on these!

Example of a great Preseason Money Making Opportunity:

In 2012 The Philadelphia Eagles played their 3rd preseason game against The Cleveland Browns. Their first real game of the season was also against The Browns. The Eagles had a proven core of veterans, while The Browns were more interested in testing their new rookie quarterback and younger personnel. It seemed pretty obvious that Philadelphia’s coach would not want to risk game-plan exposure in Game 3, and would opt to make Game 2 (against The Patriots) the real preseason test for his starters. We jumped on the Game 2 line as soon as it was available, before it moved almost 5 points! The Eagles ended up covering by over 10 points.

Early Season Football Angles

For the next few weeks I’ll be forwarding:
a) Angles that will be useful at the beginning of football season.
b) Excerpts from my newest handicapping book.

1.  Returning College Starters:
This can be a huge angle early in the season.

Players are more familiar with each other and team concepts.
Exceptions may be teams with new coaches, or those with first time senior
starters who are replacing underclassmen.

A great example:
In 2014, the team with  the most returning starters was The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners.
Their first game of the season was against The Houston Cougars.
The early preseason line in late July was Houston -13.
Smart money immediately took The Roadrunners who ended up going off at +8.5 at gametime. They won 27 to 7 covering the number by 28.5 points!

USTA ended the season 4-8, losing to some poor teams as younger players
on other squads got better.

2.  Veteran College Offensive Lines:
Teams returning more offensive line starters have a greater opportunity to
be competitive early in the season. An extra advantage goes to those teams
that also return the same starting quarterback.
This angle diminishes as the season progresses.
Other teams may get more competitive later on, while the ones that were
better earlier  improve less.